May 23 2025 18:35
SOUTH AFRICA
Community and smaller retail centres led the growth stakes in the first quarter of 2025, according to the
Clur Shopping Centre Index.
Along with these centres, super-regional malls and the Western Cape were top performers for the
quarter, said Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International which produces the index. This index is a valuable tool for landlords, retailers and other people involved in the real estate.
“The outperformance of community and smaller centres points to a shift in the consumer value system,” said Clur.
She positions the market as a “Belief Economy, with the Attention Economy fading out”.
“Meaningful values are now prioritised over excessive exposure and trusted emotional and human connection is the new currency. This is a critical backdrop for future shopping centre and business strategies,” she said.
“The national Clur Index for quarter one outperformed March 2025 CPI and saw growth relative to December 2024, in both annualised trading density and base rentals,” she said.
“The rent to sales ratio maintained its lowest level over five years, indicating continued stability and reduced market risk.”
The index is derived from the Clur Collective, an asset management industry standard and economic
indicator, now tracking performance at more than 5.4-million square metres across over 130 shopping
centres in South Africa and Namibia. The platform helps listed and unlisted property funds to understand asset health and optimise returns.
“Over the quarter, all measured shopping centre segments outperformed Mar 2025 CPI,” said Clur.
“But it was the community and smaller centres which showed the highest y/y% growth rate of 5.1%, beating CPI by 2.4% and expanding by 1.4% relative to Dec 2024. Small regional centres followed at 3.6%, beating CPI by 0.9%. Regional centres showed the next highest growth expansion of 0.9% relative to Dec 2024.
“The national Clur Index closed quarter one 2025 with an annualised trading density of R41,162/sqm and y/y% growth of 3.4%. This outperformed Mar 2025 CPI by 0.7% and showed an expansion of 0.4% relative to the 2024 year. Super regional centres showed the highest trading density of R50,440/sqm, followed by
community and smaller centres at R46,564/sqm.”
In rental performance, community and smaller centres showed the highest y/y% growth rate of 5.0%,
beating CPI by 2.3%. Regional centres followed at 4.9%, beating CPI by 2.2%.
The national Clur Index for Base Rent closed quarter one 2025 at R233.10/ sqm and y/y% growth of 3.4%. This outperformed Mar 2025 CPI by 0.7% and showed an expansion of 0.1% relative to December 2024.
Super regional centres showed the highest rentals of R314.23/sqm, followed by regional centres at
R227.48/sqm. Super regional centre rentals grew by 2.6% y/y, underperforming CPI by -0.1%.
Clur said the Western Cape showed the strongest rental performance of the key three provinces of
R256.22/sqm and y/y% growth of 6.2%, beating CPI by 3.5%. KwaZulu Natal was second, at R238.53/sqm, growing by 2.5% y/y. Gauteng’s y/y% growth rate was 2.4%, underpinned by a rental of R233.17/sqm.
The national Clur Index Base Rent to Sales ratio closed quarter one 2025 at 6.6% and stable y/y% growth.
“The market has not deviated from this level since late 2023, indicating an ongoing position of stability
and reduced market risk against the volatility of the last five years,” said Clur.
Super regional centres showed the highest rent to sales ratio of 7.2%, whereas community and smaller
centres showed the lowest level of 4.8%. The Western Cape showed the lowest rent to sales ratio of the key three provinces at 6.1%, with Gauteng showing the highest at 6.9%.
Clur said: “Trust, social connection and greater good are key elements of the new Belief Economy. These
elements are evident in the growing theme of social impact retail in South Africa, which takes products
and services to underserved communities. The Belief Economy is also evidenced through substantial growth and interest in the pre-loved second- hand and refurbished market, storytelling, the need for transparent provenance of product supply chains, as well as plant-based and organic segments becoming more mainstream shopper categories.”
Clur said the Attention Economy was based on seduction via aggressive broad-based promotional
activity on social media platforms that was mostly unashamedly brash and often dishonest.
“However, consumers have outgrown the superficial, ‘in your face’ quality that this embodied and now
crave something real. The associated “less is more” approach of the Belief Economy ties in with new
thinking on luxury now being defined by peace and minimalism.
“Integrity and well-intentioned principles are cornerstones of a new language that resonates with
consumers. In this case, a deep emotional connection is essential to attracting consumers and
stimulating their desire to engage and spend. Additionally, there is a focus on global wellness and philanthropy. Strategies that stir emotional resonance through important themes such as climate change, empathy, animal welfare, inclusivity, ethics, responsible tech and circular economies are more likely to be successful in the Belief Economy, as emotional and altruistic touchpoints inspire change,” she said.
This desired consumer sentiment seeks human medicine via physical social and community interactions. Therefore shopping centre strategies should focus on human connection as an overarching theme.
Clur said this emotional and human currency was also based on a growing loneliness pandemic with
global rising rates of single person dwellings and dropping fertility rates. Within this context, whilst
social media platforms sell connection, this was often a mirage without substance.
“The Belief Economy further embodies a well-intentioned future skills set including adaptability, critical
thinking, leading with impact, emotional intelligence, tactical ideas and solutions, personal development
and tech savviness. All of these are key themes that shopping centres and businesses need to consider,” she said.
alistair@propertyflash.co.za
Partner content for Clur International