October 12 2026 17:30
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
An opinion piece by Alistair Anderson
No party is likely to win Johannesburg outright on 4 November, and the city’s best hope for a stable government might just be a coalition between its two largest parties: the ANC and the DA.
That is an uncomfortable idea for many voters on both sides. But Johannesburg has now gone a full decade without a single-party majority. Since 2016 it has cycled through a string of mayors, collapsed coalitions and motions of no confidence, while roads, water pipes and power lines have deteriorated.
With polls pointing to another split council, the question is no longer who will win Johannesburg. Th question is who will govern it together, and whether that partnership can last five years.
The most recent large survey points to a close two-way race. Ipsos’s Pulse of the People poll, released on 4 September 2026, put the ANC narrowly ahead in Johannesburg on 31%, with the DA on 27%. Johannesburg was one of four metros where the two parties were neck and neck, alongside Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City.
The Social Research Foundation has found the DA doing better in the city, though from a smaller phone poll. Ipsos itself cautions that its metro-level figures carry wider margins of error than its national sample, and that turnout will decide the final result.
What no poll shows is anyone near 50%. The rest of the vote is spread across a crowded field.
- ActionSA, with former mayor Herman Mashaba as its candidate
- The EFF, fielding Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng
- The MK Party, now nationally the third-largest party
- The Patriotic Alliance, fielding current transport MMC Kenny Kunene
- Smaller parties including Rise Mzansi (Lukhona Mnguni), Bosa (Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster) and the IFP
The DA chose Helen Zille as its candidate early. The ANC has shortlisted Rev Frank Chikane, current mayor Dada Morero and regional chair Loyiso Masuku, with Chikane widely reported as the front-runner. This lack of a defined candidate from the ANC less than a month before the election is concerning but hardly surprising from a party that expects to win votes regardless of its service deliver track record.
The likely result, then, is an ANC and a DA each winning roughly 27–31% of the vote, with no obvious path for either to reach a majority without at least two or three partners.
Why an ANC–DA coalition is the best option
An ANC–DA partnership is the only realistic arrangement that could give Johannesburg a stable majority built on two large parties rather than a patchwork of small ones.
Stability through arithmetic. If the two parties land near their polling numbers, together they would hold close to 60% of the council. That is a cushion big enough to survive a defection or two. Johannesburg’s recent coalitions have depended on tiny parties holding the balance of power, and each could bring down a mayor by walking out. A two-party majority removes that leverage.
It already works nationally. The ANC and DA have shared power in the Government of National Unity since 2024. It has been tense at times, but it has held, and both parties have learned how to negotiate budgets, portfolios and disagreements. Johannesburg would not be starting from zero.
Complementary strengths. The ANC brings deep roots in Soweto, Alexandra, Orange Farm and other townships, along with relationships with national and provincial government. The DA brings a reputation for financial controls and a record in Cape Town it campaigns on heavily. A city with a strained balance sheet and failing infrastructure needs both community reach and tight financial management.
Confidence for investors and ratepayers. Johannesburg’s property market, rates base and credit rating all suffer when the city is unpredictable. A coalition of the two largest parties would signal that service delivery plans and capital projects will survive beyond the next council sitting. For homeowners, landlords and developers, that predictability matters as much as any single policy.
Excluding the extremes. An ANC–DA deal would not depend on parties whose platforms many residents and businesses see as hostile to property rights or fiscal discipline. It would put the political centre in charge of the country’s economic hub.
But
The case is strong, but it is far from settled, and readers should weigh the counter-arguments.
- Voters may feel betrayed. Many DA supporters vote specifically to remove the ANC, and many ANC supporters see the DA as a party of the suburbs. A deal could cost both parties support at the next election.
- Clashing campaign messages. The DA has run its campaign on governing better than the ANC. Partnering with the party it blames for the city’s decline would be a hard sell, and the ANC’s own candidate is not yet finalised.
- Other coalitions are possible. ActionSA argues it is the strongest reform partner in Gauteng, and a DA–ActionSA-led bloc is a real alternative if turnout favours opposition voters. But Herman Mashaba is a famous xenophobe and was not a successful mayor when he ran the city of Johannesburg. The EFF, PA and MK could also back an ANC-led coalition, as smaller parties have done in Johannesburg before.
- National ties cut both ways. Supporters of the GNU see it as proof the parties can cooperate. Critics argue that friction at national level could spill into the city, and that local councillors need not copy national arrangements.
- The polls could be wrong. Ipsos warns its metro figures are indicative. A strong showing by either party, or by ActionSA, would change the arithmetic entirely.
Johannesburg is heading for another hung council. The choice after 4 November will be between a broad partnership of the two biggest parties and yet another fragile alliance held hostage by small ones.
An ANC–DA coalition would not be easy, and neither party is campaigning for it. But it offers the city something it has lacked for ten years: a governing majority large enough to last a full term. For residents waiting on water, electricity and roads, and for anyone with a stake in the city’s property market, that stability may be worth more than either party’s pride.
alistair@propertyflash.co.za
